2006 Preseason Predictions
Comparsion between Predicted and Actual Results
Explanation for Error Term:  Suppose I pick a team to go 9-3 (six game win-loss margin) and it ends up going 8-4 (four game margin).
Then the difference between the predicted and actual win-loss margins is 2 (six minus four), even though I was only off by one game.
Thus, the error is given by the difference between the actual and predicted win-loss margins, divided by two.
The Standard Error is calculated using the usual root-mean-square definition of standard deviation.
Overall for Division I-A 2006 preseason predictions I had a standard error of 2.74 games.  Taking an average of 12 games played by
each team gives a 77.2% preseason accuracy rate, a bit better than my during-the-season game-picking accuracy.
Conference - USA Error
2006 Preseason Predictions 2006 Actual Outcomes (W - L)/2
Conference Overall Conference Overall Error
1 Tulsa 9 - 0 13 - 1 1 Houston 8 - 1 10 - 4 0.5
2 Southern Miss. 7 - 2 9 - 5 2 Southern Miss. 6 - 3 9 - 5 0
3 Houston 6 - 2 9 - 4 3 Rice 6 - 2 7 - 6 5.5
4 Central Florida 5 - 3 6 - 7 4 Tulsa 5 - 3 8 - 5 -4.5
5 Memphis 4 - 4 8 - 5 5 East Carolina 5 - 3 7 - 6 2.5
6 Texas - El Paso 4 - 4 5 - 7 6 SMU 4 - 4 6 - 6 -0.5
7 SMU 4 - 4 7 - 6 7 Marshall 4 - 4 5 - 7 3
8 East Carolina 4 - 4 4 - 8 8 Texas - El Paso 3 - 5 5 - 7 0
9 UAB 3 - 5 5 - 7 9 Central Florida 3 - 5 4 - 8 -1.5
10 Marshall 1 - 7 2 - 10 10 Tulane 2 - 6 4 - 8 4
11 Rice 1 - 7 1 - 11 11 UAB 2 - 6 3 - 9 -2
12 Tulane 0 - 8 0 - 12 12 Memphis 1 - 7 2 - 10 -5.5
Standard Error: 3.29
Southeastern Conference
2006 Preseason Predictions 2006 Actual Outcomes Error
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 Georgia 8 - 1 12 - 2 1 Florida 8 - 1 13 - 1 3.5
2 LSU 7 - 2 11 - 3 2 Arkansas 7 - 2 10 - 4 2.5
3 Auburn 7 - 1 11 - 2 3 Auburn 6 - 2 11 - 2 0
4 Florida 6 - 2 9 - 4 4 LSU 6 - 2 11 - 2 0.5
5 Alabama 5 - 3 9 - 4 5 Tennessee 5 - 3 9 - 4 3
6 South Carolina 5 - 3 8 - 5 6 Kentucky 4 - 4 8 - 5 4.5
7 Tennessee 3 - 5 6 - 7 7 Georgia 4 - 4 9 - 4 -2.5
8 Arkansas 3 - 5 7 - 6 8 South Carolina 3 - 5 8 - 5 0
9 Vanderbilt 2 - 6 5 - 7 9 Alabama 2 - 6 6 - 7 -3
10 Mississippi 1 - 7 2 - 10 10 Mississippi 2 - 6 4 - 8 2
11 Mississippi State 1 - 7 3 - 9 11 Vanderbilt 1 - 7 4 - 8 -1
12 Kentucky 1 - 7 3 - 9 12 Mississippi State 1 - 7 3 - 9 0
Standard Error: 2.49
Atlantic Coast Conference
2006 Preseason Predictions 2006 Actual Outcomes Error
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 Virginia Tech 9 - 0 13 - 1 1 Wake Forest 7 - 2 11 - 3 5
2 Florida State 7 - 2 11 - 3 2 Georgia Tech 7 - 2 9 - 5 3
3 Miami-Florida 7 - 1 11 - 2 3 Virginia Tech 6 - 2 10 - 3 -2.5
4 Boston College 5 - 3 10 - 3 4 Boston College 5 - 3 10 - 3 0
5 Clemson 5 - 3 10 - 3 5 Maryland 5 - 3 9 - 4 4.5
6 Virginia 4 - 4 8 - 5 6 Clemson 5 - 3 8 - 5 -2
7 North Carolina 4 - 4 7 - 6 7 Virginia 4 - 4 5 - 7 -2.5
8 N. C. State 3 - 5 8 - 5 8 Florida State 3 - 5 7 - 6 -3.5
9 Georgia Tech 3 - 5 5 - 7 9 Miami-Florida 3 - 5 7 - 6 -4
10 Maryland 1 - 7 4 - 8 10 North Carolina 2 - 6 3 - 9 -3.5
11 Wake Forest 1 - 7 5 - 7 11 N. C. State 2 - 6 3 - 9 -4.5
12 Duke 0 - 8 1 - 11 12 Duke 0 - 8 0 - 12 -1
Standard Error: 3.47
Big East Conference
2006 Preseason Predictions 2006 Actual Outcomes Error
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 Louisville 7 - 0 12 - 1 1 Louisville 6 - 1 12 - 1 0
2 West Virginia 6 - 1 12 - 1 2 West Virginia 5 - 2 11 - 2 -1
3 South Florida 5 - 2 9 - 4 3 Rutgers 5 - 2 11 - 2 4
4 Pittsburgh 3 - 4 6 - 7 4 Cincinnati 4 - 3 8 - 5 4.5
5 Rutgers 3 - 4 7 - 6 5 South Florida 4 - 3 9 - 4 0
6 Connecticut 3 - 4 5 - 7 6 Pittsburgh 2 - 5 6 - 6 0.5
7 Cincinnati 1 - 6 3 - 9 7 Syracuse 1 - 6 4 - 8 4
8 Syracuse 0 - 7 0 - 12 8 Connecticut 1 - 6 4 - 8 -1
Standard Error: 2.79
Big Ten+1 Conference
2006 Preseason Predictions 2006 Actual Outcomes Error
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 Ohio State 8 - 0 11 - 2 1 Ohio State 8 - 0 12 - 1 1
2 Penn State 7 - 1 12 - 1 2 Michigan 7 - 1 11 - 2 1
3 Michigan 6 - 2 10 - 3 3 Wisconsin 7 - 1 12 - 1 2
4 Iowa 5 - 3 10 - 3 4 Penn State 5 - 3 9 - 4 -3
5 Wisconsin 5 - 3 10 - 3 5 Purdue 5 - 3 8 - 6 1
6 Minnesota 4 - 4 9 - 4 6 Minnesota 3 - 5 6 - 7 -3
7 Northwestern 3 - 5 7 - 6 7 Indiana 3 - 5 5 - 7 0
8 Purdue 3 - 5 7 - 7 8 Northwestern 2 - 6 4 - 8 -2.5
9 Michigan State 2 - 6 5 - 7 9 Iowa 2 - 6 6 - 7 -4
10 Indiana 1 - 7 5 - 7 10 Illinois 1 - 7 2 - 10 -1
11 Illinois 0 - 8 3 - 9 11 Michigan State 1 - 7 4 - 8 -1
Standard Error: 2.22
Mid-American Conference
2006 Preseason Predictions 2006 Actual Outcomes Error
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 Northern Illinois 9 - 0 11 - 3 1 Central Michigan 8 - 1 10 - 4 0.5
2 Miami-Ohio 7 - 2 9 - 5 2 Ohio 7 - 2 9 - 5 5
3 Toledo 7 - 1 8 - 5 3 Western Michigan 6 - 2 8 - 5 3.5
4 Central Michigan 6 - 2 9 - 4 4 Northern Illinois 5 - 3 7 - 6 -3.5
5 Bowling Green 5 - 3 7 - 5 5 Ball State 5 - 3 5 - 7 1
6 Akron 3 - 5 5 - 7 6 Kent State 5 - 3 6 - 6 4
7 Western Michigan 3 - 5 4 - 8 7 Toledo 3 - 5 5 - 7 -2.5
8 Ball State 3 - 5 4 - 8 8 Akron 3 - 5 5 - 7 0
9 Eastern Michigan 2 - 6 3 - 9 9 Bowling Green 3 - 5 4 - 8 -3
10 Ohio 2 - 6 3 - 9 10 Miami-Ohio 2 - 6 2 - 10 -6
11 Kent State 1 - 7 2 - 10 11 Buffalo 1 - 7 2 - 10 1
12 Buffalo 0 - 8 1 - 11 12 Eastern Michigan 1 - 7 1 - 11 -2
Standard Error: 3.34
Pacific Ten Conference
2006 Preseason Predictions 2006 Actual Outcomes Error
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 Southern Cal 9 - 0 13 - 0 1 Southern Cal 7 - 2 11 - 2 -2
2 Oregon 8 - 1 12 - 1 2 California 7 - 2 10 - 3 0
3 California 7 - 2 10 - 3 3 Oregon State 6 - 3 10 - 4 4.5
4 Arizona State 6 - 3 9 - 4 4 UCLA 5 - 4 7 - 6 -1
5 UCLA 5 - 4 8 - 5 5 Arizona State 4 - 5 7 - 6 -2
6 Stanford 4 - 5 7 - 6 6 Arizona 4 - 5 6 - 6 2
7 Oregon State 2 - 7 5 - 8 7 Washington State 4 - 5 6 - 6 2
8 Washington State 2 - 7 4 - 8 8 Oregon 4 - 5 7 - 6 -5
9 Arizona 2 - 7 4 - 8 9 Washington 3 - 6 5 - 7 3
10 Washington 0 - 9 2 - 10 10 Stanford 1 - 8 1 - 11 -5.5
Standard Error: 3.36
Big Twelve Conference
2006 Preseason Predictions 2006 Actual Outcomes Error
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 Texas 9 - 0 14 - 0 1 Oklahoma 8 - 1 11 - 3 -0.5
2 Oklahoma 7 - 1 11 - 2 2 Texas 6 - 2 10 - 3 -3.5
3 Iowa State 6 - 3 9 - 5 3 Nebraska 6 - 3 9 - 5 -0.5
4 Texas A&M 5 - 3 9 - 4 4 Texas A&M 5 - 3 9 - 4 0
5 Kansas 5 - 3 9 - 4 5 Missouri 4 - 4 8 - 5 1
6 Nebraska 5 - 3 9 - 4 6 Kansas State 4 - 4 7 - 6 2.5
7 Texas Tech 4 - 4 8 - 5 7 Texas Tech 4 - 4 8 - 5 0
8 Missouri 3 - 5 7 - 6 8 Oklahoma State 3 - 5 7 - 6 3.5
9 Colorado 2 - 6 5 - 7 9 Baylor 3 - 5 4 - 8 0
10 Baylor 2 - 6 4 - 8 10 Kansas 3 - 5 6 - 6 -2.5
11 Kansas State 1 - 7 4 - 8 11 Colorado 2 - 6 2 - 10 -3
12 Oklahoma State 0 - 8 3 - 9 12 Iowa State 1 - 7 4 - 8 -4
Standard Error: 2.40
Mountain West Conference
2006 Preseason Predictions 2006 Actual Outcomes Error
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 Texas Christian 8 - 0 13 - 0 1 Brigham Young 8 - 0 11 - 2 2
2 Utah 7 - 1 11 - 2 2 Texas Christian 6 - 2 11 - 2 -2
3 Brigham Young 6 - 2 9 - 4 3 Wyoming 5 - 3 6 - 6 3
4 San Diego State 5 - 3 9 - 4 4 Utah 5 - 3 8 - 5 -3
5 New Mexico 4 - 4 7 - 5 5 New Mexico 4 - 4 6 - 7 -1.5
6 Air Force 3 - 5 4 - 8 6 San Diego State 3 - 5 3 - 9 -5.5
7 Colorado State 2 - 6 3 - 9 7 Air Force 3 - 5 4 - 8 0
8 Wyoming 1 - 7 3 - 9 8 Colorado State 1 - 7 4 - 8 1
9 UNLV 0 - 8 1 - 11 9 UNLV 1 - 7 2 - 10 1
Standard Error: 2.75
Western Athletic Conference
2006 Preseason Predictions 2006 Actual Outcomes Error
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 Boise State 8 - 0 11 - 2 1 Boise State 8 - 0 13 - 0 2
2 Fresno State 7 - 1 8 - 5 2 Hawai'i 7 - 1 11 - 3 3
3 Hawai'i 6 - 2 8 - 6 3 Nevada 5 - 3 8 - 5 1.5
4 Louisiana Tech 5 - 3 7 - 7 4 San Jose State 5 - 3 9 - 4 5.5
5 Nevada 4 - 4 6 - 6 5 Fresno State 4 - 4 4 - 8 -3.5
6 Idaho 2 - 6 3 - 9 6 Idaho 3 - 5 4 - 8 1
7 San Jose State 2 - 6 3 - 9 7 New Mexico State 2 - 6 4 - 8 2
8 Utah State 2 - 6 2 - 10 8 Louisiana Tech 1 - 7 3 - 10 -3.5
9 New Mexico State 0 - 8 2 - 10 9 Utah State 1 - 7 1 - 11 -1
Standard Error: 3.08
Sun Belt Conference
2006 Preseason Predictions 2006 Actual Outcomes Error
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 Middle Tennessee 7 - 0 8 - 5 1 Troy 6 - 1 8 - 5 2.5
2 UL-Lafayette 6 - 1 7 - 5 2 Middle Tennessee 6 - 1 7 - 6 -1
3 Troy 4 - 3 5 - 7 3 Florida Atlantic 4 - 3 5 - 7 2
4 Florida Int'l 3 - 4 3 - 9 4 Arkansas State 4 - 3 6 - 6 3
5 Arkansas State 3 - 4 3 - 9 5 UL-Monroe 3 - 4 4 - 8 1
6 UL-Monroe 2 - 5 3 - 9 6 UL-Lafayette 3 - 4 6 - 6 -1
7 Florida Atlantic 2 - 5 3 - 9 7 North Texas 2 - 5 3 - 9 2
8 North Texas 1 - 6 1 - 11 8 Florida Int'l 0 - 7 0 - 12 -3
Standard Error: 2.24
IA Independents
2006 Preseason Predictions 2006 Actual Outcomes Error
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 Notre Dame 2 - 0 11 - 2 1 Notre Dame 2 - 0 10 - 3 -1
2 Navy 2 - 1 9 - 4 2 Navy 2 - 1 9 - 4 0
3 Army 0 - 2 5 - 7 3 Army 0 - 2 3 - 9 -2
4 Temple 0 - 1 0 - 12 4 Temple 0 - 1 1 - 11 1
Standard Error: 1.41
Overall Standard Error: 2.74
(77.2% Accuracy)
Predictions for the 2007 season will be posted sometime early in July.
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