| 2004 Preseason Predictions (Posted 16 July 2004) | |||||||||
| Comparsion between Predicted and Actual Results | |||||||||
| Explanation for Error Term: Suppose I pick a team to go 9-3 (six game win-loss margin) and it ends up going 8-4 (four game margin). | |||||||||
| Then the difference between the predicted and actual win-loss margins is 2 (six minus four), even though I was only off by one game. | |||||||||
| Thus, the error is given by the difference between the actual and predicted win-loss margins, divided by two. | |||||||||
| The Standard Error is calculated using the usual root-mean-square definition of standard deviation. | |||||||||
| Overall for Division I-A 2004 preseason predictions I had a standard error of 2.37 games. Taking an average of 11.5 games played by | |||||||||
| each team gives a 79.4% preseason accuracy rate, which is slightly higher than my during-the-season 75% accuracy rate. | |||||||||
| Note: for 2004 I correctly predicted seven out of the eleven I-A conference champions, and also successfully predicted that for the | |||||||||
| first time a non-BCS conference team (Utah) would participate in a BCS bowl. | |||||||||
| Conference - USA | |||||||||
| 2004 Preseason Predictions | 2004 Actual Outcomes | ||||||||
| Conference | Overall | Conference | Overall | Error | |||||
| 1 | Louisville | 8 - 0 | 11 - 1 | 1 | Louisville | 8 - 0 | 11 - 1 | 0 | |
| 2 | Memphis | 7 - 1 | 9 - 3 | 2 | UAB | 5 - 3 | 7 - 5 | 0 | |
| 3 | Texas Christian | 7 - 1 | 8 - 4 | 3 | Cincinnati | 5 - 3 | 7 - 5 | 3.5 | |
| 4 | Southern Miss. | 6 - 2 | 6 - 6 | 4 | Memphis | 5 - 3 | 8 - 4 | -1 | |
| 5 | UAB | 5 - 3 | 7 - 5 | 5 | Southern Miss. | 5 - 3 | 7 - 5 | 1 | |
| 6 | Houston | 3 - 5 | 4 - 7 | 6 | South Florida | 3 - 5 | 4 - 7 | 1 | |
| 7 | Cincinnati | 3 - 5 | 3 - 8 | 7 | Houston | 3 - 5 | 3 - 8 | -1 | |
| 8 | South Florida | 2 - 6 | 3 - 8 | 8 | Tulane | 3 - 5 | 5 - 6 | 2 | |
| 9 | Tulane | 2 - 6 | 3 - 8 | 9 | Texas Christian | 3 - 5 | 5 - 6 | -2.5 | |
| 10 | East Carolina | 1 - 7 | 1 - 10 | 10 | East Carolina | 2 - 6 | 2 - 9 | 1 | |
| 11 | Army | 0 - 8 | 0 - 11 | 11 | Army | 2 - 6 | 2 - 9 | 2 | |
| Standard Error: | 1.77 | ||||||||
| Southeastern Conference | |||||||||
| 2004 Preseason Predictions | 2004 Actual Outcomes | ||||||||
| Conference | Overall | Conference | Overall | Error | |||||
| 1 | LSU | 9 - 0 | 13 - 0 | 1 | Auburn | 9 - 0 | 13 - 0 | 3.5 | |
| 2 | Georgia | 7 - 2 | 11 - 2 | 2 | Tennessee | 7 - 2 | 10 - 3 | 2.5 | |
| 3 | Mississippi | 7 - 1 | 10 - 2 | 3 | Georgia | 6 - 2 | 10 - 2 | -0.5 | |
| 4 | Florida | 6 - 2 | 9 - 3 | 4 | LSU | 6 - 2 | 9 - 3 | -3.5 | |
| 5 | Auburn | 5 - 3 | 9 - 3 | 5 | Florida | 4 - 4 | 7 - 5 | -2 | |
| 6 | Tennessee | 4 - 4 | 7 - 5 | 6 | South Carolina | 4 - 4 | 6 - 5 | 2 | |
| 7 | Arkansas | 3 - 5 | 5 - 6 | 7 | Arkansas | 3 - 5 | 5 - 6 | 0 | |
| 8 | Alabama | 3 - 5 | 6 - 6 | 8 | Alabama | 3 - 5 | 6 - 6 | 0 | |
| 9 | South Carolina | 2 - 6 | 4 - 7 | 9 | Mississippi | 3 - 5 | 4 - 7 | -5.5 | |
| 10 | Kentucky | 2 - 6 | 4 - 7 | 10 | Mississippi State | 2 - 6 | 3 - 8 | 1 | |
| 11 | Vanderbilt | 1 - 7 | 2 - 9 | 11 | Kentucky | 1 - 7 | 2 - 9 | -2 | |
| 12 | Mississippi State | 0 - 8 | 2 - 9 | 12 | Vanderbilt | 1 - 7 | 2 - 9 | 0 | |
| Standard Error: | 2.60 | ||||||||
| Atlantic Coast Conference | |||||||||
| 2004 Preseason Predictions | 2004 Actual Outcomes | ||||||||
| Conference | Overall | Conference | Overall | Error | |||||
| 1 | Clemson | 8 - 0 | 12 - 0 | 1 | Virginia Tech | 7 - 1 | 10 - 3 | 5.5 | |
| 2 | Florida State | 7 - 1 | 10 - 2 | 2 | Florida State | 6 - 2 | 9 - 3 | -1 | |
| 3 | Virginia | 6 - 2 | 10 - 2 | 3 | Miami-Florida | 5 - 3 | 9 - 3 | 0 | |
| 4 | Maryland | 5 - 3 | 9 - 3 | 4 | Virginia | 5 - 3 | 8 - 4 | -2 | |
| 5 | Miami-Florida | 5 - 3 | 9 - 3 | 5 | North Carolina | 5 - 3 | 6 - 6 | 3.5 | |
| 6 | N. C. State | 4 - 4 | 8 - 4 | 6 | Georgia Tech | 4 - 4 | 7 - 5 | 1.5 | |
| 7 | Georgia Tech | 3 - 5 | 5 - 6 | 7 | Clemson | 4 - 4 | 6 - 5 | -5.5 | |
| 8 | Wake Forest | 3 - 5 | 5 - 6 | 8 | N. C. State | 3 - 5 | 5 - 6 | -2.5 | |
| 9 | Virginia Tech | 2 - 6 | 4 - 8 | 9 | Maryland | 3 - 5 | 5 - 6 | -3.5 | |
| 10 | North Carolina | 1 - 7 | 2 - 9 | 10 | Wake Forest | 1 - 7 | 4 - 7 | -1 | |
| 11 | Duke | 0 - 8 | 2 - 9 | 11 | Duke | 1 - 7 | 2 - 9 | 0 | |
| Standard Error: | 3.15 | ||||||||
| Big East Conference | |||||||||
| 2004 Preseason Predictions | 2004 Actual Outcomes | ||||||||
| Conference | Overall | Conference | Overall | Error | |||||
| 1 | Boston College | 6 - 0 | 11 - 1 | 1 | Syracuse | 4 - 2 | 6 - 6 | 0.5 | |
| 2 | West Virginia | 5 - 1 | 9 - 3 | 2 | Pittsburgh | 4 - 2 | 8 - 4 | 2.5 | |
| 3 | Connecticut | 4 - 2 | 7 - 5 | 4 | West Virginia | 4 - 2 | 8 - 4 | -1 | |
| 4 | Syracuse | 3 - 3 | 5 - 6 | 5 | Connecticut | 3 - 3 | 8 - 4 | 1 | |
| 5 | Pittsburgh | 2 - 4 | 5 - 6 | 6 | Boston College | 4 - 2 | 9 - 3 | -2 | |
| 6 | Rutgers | 1 - 5 | 5 - 6 | 6 | Rutgers | 1 - 5 | 4 - 7 | -1 | |
| 7 | Temple | 0 - 6 | 1 - 10 | 7 | Temple | 1 - 5 | 2 - 9 | 1 | |
| Standard Error: | 1.55 | ||||||||
| Big Ten+1 Conference | |||||||||
| 2004 Preseason Predictions | 2004 Actual Outcomes | ||||||||
| Conference | Overall | Conference | Overall | Error | |||||
| 1 | Michigan | 8 - 0 | 12 - 0 | 1 | Michigan | 7 - 1 | 9 - 3 | -3 | |
| 2 | Iowa | 7 - 1 | 10 - 2 | 2 | Iowa | 7 - 1 | 10 - 2 | 0 | |
| 3 | Purdue | 6 - 2 | 9 - 3 | 3 | Wisconsin | 6 - 2 | 9 - 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | Ohio State | 5 - 3 | 8 - 4 | 4 | Northwestern | 5 - 3 | 6 - 6 | -1.5 | |
| 5 | Wisconsin | 5 - 3 | 8 - 4 | 5 | Purdue | 4 - 4 | 7 - 5 | -2 | |
| 6 | Minnesota | 5 - 3 | 9 - 3 | 6 | Ohio State | 4 - 4 | 8 - 4 | 0 | |
| 7 | Michigan State | 3 - 5 | 8 - 5 | 7 | Michigan State | 4 - 4 | 5 - 7 | -2.5 | |
| 8 | Northwestern | 3 - 5 | 8 - 5 | 8 | Minnesota | 3 - 5 | 7 - 5 | -2 | |
| 9 | Penn State | 1 - 7 | 3 - 8 | 9 | Penn State | 2 - 6 | 4 - 7 | 1 | |
| 10 | Illinois | 1 - 7 | 3 - 8 | 10 | Illinois | 1 - 7 | 3 - 8 | 0 | |
| 11 | Indiana | 0 - 8 | 1 - 10 | 11 | Indiana | 1 - 7 | 3 - 8 | 2 | |
| Standard Error: | 1.77 | ||||||||
| Mid-American Conference | |||||||||
| 2004 Preseason Predictions | 2004 Actual Outcomes | ||||||||
| Conference | Overall | Conference | Overall | Error | |||||
| 1 | Miami-Ohio | 9 - 0 | 12 - 1 | 1 | Toledo | 8 - 1 | 9 - 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | Bowling Green | 8 - 1 | 10 - 3 | 2 | Miami-Ohio | 7 - 2 | 8 - 5 | -4 | |
| 3 | Northern Illinois | 7 - 1 | 9 - 3 | 3 | Northern Illinois | 7 - 1 | 9 - 3 | 0 | |
| 4 | Marshall | 6 - 2 | 8 - 4 | 4 | Akron | 6 - 2 | 6 - 5 | 0 | |
| 5 | Akron | 5 - 3 | 6 - 5 | 5 | Marshall | 6 - 2 | 6 - 6 | -2 | |
| 6 | Toledo | 5 - 3 | 6 - 5 | 6 | Bowling Green | 6 - 2 | 9 - 3 | -0.5 | |
| 7 | Kent State | 5 - 3 | 6 - 5 | 7 | Kent State | 4 - 4 | 5 - 6 | -1 | |
| 8 | Western Michigan | 3 - 5 | 4 - 7 | 8 | Eastern Michigan | 4 - 4 | 4 - 7 | 1 | |
| 9 | Ball State | 3 - 5 | 3 - 8 | 9 | Central Michigan | 3 - 5 | 4 - 7 | 3 | |
| 10 | Central Florida | 2 - 6 | 2 - 9 | 10 | Ohio | 2 - 6 | 4 - 7 | 2 | |
| 11 | Eastern Michigan | 2 - 6 | 3 - 8 | 11 | Ball State | 2 - 6 | 2 - 9 | -1 | |
| 12 | Ohio | 1 - 7 | 2 - 9 | 12 | Buffalo | 2 - 6 | 2 - 9 | 1 | |
| 13 | Buffalo | 1 - 7 | 1 - 10 | 13 | Western Michigan | 0 - 8 | 1 - 10 | -3 | |
| 14 | Central Michigan | 0 - 8 | 1 - 10 | 14 | Central Florida | 0 - 8 | 0 - 11 | -2 | |
| Standard Error: | 2.04 | ||||||||
| Pacific Ten Conference | |||||||||
| 2004 Preseason Predictions | 2004 Actual Outcomes | ||||||||
| Conference | Overall | Conference | Overall | Error | |||||
| 1 | Southern Cal | 8 - 0 | 12 - 1 | 1 | Southern Cal | 8 - 0 | 13 - 0 | 1 | |
| 2 | California | 7 - 1 | 10 - 2 | 2 | California | 7 - 1 | 10 - 2 | 0 | |
| 3 | Washington State | 6 - 2 | 9 - 3 | 3 | Arizona State | 5 - 3 | 9 - 3 | 4.5 | |
| 4 | Oregon State | 6 - 2 | 8 - 4 | 4 | Oregon State | 5 - 3 | 7 - 5 | -1 | |
| 5 | Oregon | 5 - 3 | 8 - 4 | 5 | UCLA | 4 - 4 | 6 - 6 | 2.5 | |
| 6 | Washington | 3 - 5 | 5 - 6 | 6 | Oregon | 4 - 4 | 5 - 6 | -2.5 | |
| 7 | Arizona State | 3 - 5 | 4 - 7 | 7 | Washington State | 3 - 5 | 5 - 6 | -3.5 | |
| 8 | UCLA | 2 - 6 | 3 - 8 | 8 | Arizona | 2 - 6 | 3 - 8 | 2 | |
| 9 | Stanford | 0 - 8 | 2 - 9 | 9 | Stanford | 2 - 6 | 4 - 7 | 2 | |
| 10 | Arizona | 0 - 8 | 1 - 10 | 10 | Washington | 0 - 8 | 1 - 10 | -4 | |
| Standard Error: | 2.81 | ||||||||
| Big Twelve Conference | |||||||||
| 2004 Preseason Predictions | 2004 Actual Outcomes | ||||||||
| Conference | Overall | Conference | Overall | Error | |||||
| 1 | Oklahoma | 9 - 0 | 13 - 0 | 1 | Oklahoma | 9 - 0 | 12 - 1 | -1 | |
| 2 | Kansas State | 7 - 2 | 11 - 2 | 2 | Texas | 7 - 1 | 11 - 1 | 0 | |
| 3 | Texas | 7 - 1 | 11 - 1 | 3 | Texas A&M | 5 - 3 | 7 - 5 | 3.5 | |
| 4 | Texas Tech | 5 - 3 | 9 - 3 | 4 | Texas Tech | 5 - 3 | 8 - 4 | -1 | |
| 5 | Nebraska | 5 - 3 | 8 - 4 | 5 | Oklahoma State | 4 - 4 | 7 - 5 | -2 | |
| 6 | Oklahoma State | 5 - 3 | 9 - 3 | 6 | Colorado | 4 - 5 | 8 - 5 | 4 | |
| 7 | Missouri | 4 - 4 | 7 - 5 | 7 | Iowa State | 4 - 4 | 7 - 5 | 5.5 | |
| 8 | Kansas | 2 - 6 | 4 - 7 | 8 | Nebraska | 3 - 5 | 5 - 6 | -2.5 | |
| 9 | Colorado | 2 - 6 | 3 - 8 | 9 | Missouri | 3 - 5 | 5 - 6 | -1.5 | |
| 10 | Texas A&M | 2 - 6 | 3 - 8 | 10 | Kansas | 2 - 6 | 4 - 7 | 0 | |
| 11 | Baylor | 1 - 7 | 2 - 9 | 11 | Kansas State | 2 - 6 | 4 - 7 | -6 | |
| 12 | Iowa State | 0 - 8 | 1 - 10 | 12 | Baylor | 1 - 7 | 3 - 8 | 1 | |
| Standard Error: | 3.16 | ||||||||
| Mountain West Conference | |||||||||
| 2004 Preseason Predictions | 2004 Actual Outcomes | ||||||||
| Conference | Overall | Conference | Overall | Error | |||||
| 1 | Utah | 7 - 0 | 11 - 1 | 1 | Utah | 7 - 0 | 12 - 0 | 1 | |
| 2 | New Mexico | 6 - 1 | 7 - 5 | 2 | New Mexico | 5 - 2 | 7 - 5 | 0 | |
| 3 | Colorado State | 5 - 2 | 7 - 5 | 3 | Brigham Young | 4 - 3 | 5 - 6 | 5 | |
| 4 | San Diego State | 4 - 3 | 8 - 4 | 4 | Air Force | 3 - 4 | 5 - 6 | 2 | |
| 5 | Wyoming | 3 - 4 | 5 - 6 | 5 | Colorado State | 3 - 4 | 4 - 7 | -2.5 | |
| 6 | UNLV | 2 - 5 | 4 - 7 | 6 | Wyoming | 3 - 4 | 7 - 5 | 1.5 | |
| 7 | Air Force | 1 - 6 | 3 - 8 | 7 | San Diego State | 2 - 5 | 4 - 7 | -3.5 | |
| 8 | Brigham Young | 0 - 7 | 0 - 11 | 8 | UNLV | 1 - 6 | 2 - 9 | -2 | |
| Standard Error: | 2.80 | ||||||||
| Western Athletic Conference | |||||||||
| 2004 Preseason Predictions | 2004 Actual Outcomes | ||||||||
| Conference | Overall | Conference | Overall | Error | |||||
| 1 | Boise State | 8 - 0 | 12 - 0 | 1 | Boise State | 8 - 0 | 11 - 1 | -1 | |
| 2 | Fresno State | 7 - 1 | 8 - 4 | 2 | Texas - El Paso | 6 - 2 | 8 - 4 | 7.5 | |
| 3 | Hawai'i | 6 - 2 | 9 - 4 | 3 | Louisiana Tech | 5 - 3 | 6 - 5 | 3 | |
| 4 | Tulsa | 6 - 2 | 7 - 6 | 4 | Fresno State | 5 - 3 | 9 - 3 | 1 | |
| 5 | Rice | 5 - 3 | 5 - 6 | 5 | Hawai'i | 4 - 4 | 8 - 5 | -1 | |
| 6 | Nevada | 3 - 5 | 5 - 7 | 6 | SMU | 3 - 5 | 3 - 8 | 1 | |
| 7 | Louisiana Tech | 2 - 6 | 3 - 8 | 7 | Nevada | 3 - 5 | 5 - 7 | 0 | |
| 8 | SMU | 2 - 6 | 2 - 9 | 8 | Tulsa | 3 - 5 | 4 - 8 | -2.5 | |
| 9 | San Jose State | 1 - 7 | 2 - 9 | 9 | Rice | 2 - 6 | 3 - 8 | -2 | |
| 10 | Texas - El Paso | 0 - 8 | 0 - 11 | 10 | San Jose State | 1 - 7 | 2 - 9 | 0 | |
| Standard Error: | 2.97 | ||||||||
| Sun Belt Conference | |||||||||
| 2004 Preseason Predictions | 2004 Actual Outcomes | ||||||||
| Conference | Overall | Conference | Overall | Error | |||||
| 1 | North Texas | 7 - 0 | 10 - 2 | 1 | North Texas | 7 - 0 | 7 - 5 | -3 | |
| 2 | Middle Tennessee | 7 - 1 | 7 - 5 | 2 | Troy State | 4 - 2 | 7 - 5 | 1.5 | |
| 3 | Troy State | 5 - 1 | 5 - 6 | 3 | UL-Monroe | 3 - 3 | 5 - 6 | 3 | |
| 4 | New Mexico State | 2 - 3 | 5 - 6 | 4 | New Mexico State | 3 - 2 | 5 - 6 | 0 | |
| 5 | Idaho | 3 - 4 | 4 - 8 | 5 | Middle Tennessee | 4 - 4 | 5 - 6 | -1.5 | |
| 6 | Utah State | 3 - 4 | 3 - 8 | 6 | Arkansas State | 3 - 4 | 3 - 8 | 3 | |
| 7 | UL-Lafayette | 2 - 5 | 4 - 7 | 7 | Utah State | 2 - 5 | 3 - 8 | 0 | |
| 8 | UL-Monroe | 1 - 5 | 2 - 9 | 8 | Idaho | 2 - 5 | 3 - 9 | -1 | |
| 9 | Arkansas State | 0 - 7 | 0 - 11 | 9 | UL-Lafayette | 2 - 5 | 4 - 7 | 0 | |
| Standard Error: | 2.02 | ||||||||
| IA Independents | |||||||||
| 2004 Preseason Predictions | 2004 Actual Outcomes | ||||||||
| Conference | Overall | Conference | Overall | Error | |||||
| 1 | Navy | 0 - 1 | 10 - 2 | 1 | Navy | 0 - 1 | 10 - 2 | 0 | |
| 2 | Notre Dame | 1 - 0 | 5 - 6 | 2 | Notre Dame | 1 - 0 | 6 - 6 | 0.5 | |
| Standard Error: | 0.50 | ||||||||
| Overall Standard Error: | 2.37 | ||||||||
| (79.4% Accuracy) | |||||||||
| Predictions for the 2005 season will be posted sometime in the first half of July. | |||||||||
| Back to Prognostication Page | |||||||||