2005 Preseason Predictions (Posted 10 July 2005)
Comparsion between Predicted and Actual Results
Explanation for Error Term:  Suppose I pick a team to go 9-3 (six game win-loss margin) and it ends up going 8-4 (four game margin).
Then the difference between the predicted and actual win-loss margins is 2 (six minus four), even though I was only off by one game.
Thus, the error is given by the difference between the actual and predicted win-loss margins, divided by two.
The Standard Error is calculated using the usual root-mean-square definition of standard deviation.
Overall for Division I-A 2005 preseason predictions I had a standard error of 2.94 games.  Taking an average of 11.5 games played by
each team gives a 74.4% preseason accuracy rate, about the same as my during-the-season game-picking accuracy.
Conference - USA Error
2005 Preseason Predictions 2005 Actual Outcomes (W - L)/2
Conference Overall Conference Overall Error
1 Texas - El Paso 9 - 0 13 - 0 1 Tulsa 7 - 2 9 - 4 5
2 Southern Miss. 8 - 1 9 - 4 2 Central Florida 7 - 2 8 - 5 7
3 Memphis 6 - 2 9 - 3 3 Texas - El Paso 5 - 3 8 - 4 -4.5
4 UAB 5 - 3 7 - 5 4 Southern Miss. 5 - 3 7 - 5 -1.5
5 Tulane 5 - 3 7 - 5 5 Memphis 5 - 3 7 - 5 -2
6 Houston 4 - 4 5 - 6 6 East Carolina 4 - 4 5 - 6 4
7 Marshall 4 - 4 4 - 7 7 SMU 4 - 4 5 - 6 3.5
8 Tulsa 3 - 5 3 - 8 8 Houston 4 - 4 6 - 6 0.5
9 Rice 3 - 5 3 - 8 9 Marshall 3 - 5 4 - 7 0
10 SMU 1 - 7 2 - 9 10 UAB 3 - 5 5 - 6 -1.5
11 East Carolina 1 - 7 1 - 10 11 Rice 1 - 7 1 - 10 -2
12 Central Florida 0 - 8 0 - 11 12 Tulane 1 - 7 2 - 9 -4.5
Standard Error: 3.76
Southeastern Conference
2005 Preseason Predictions 2005 Actual Outcomes Error
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 Auburn 9 - 0 13 - 0 1 Georgia 7 - 2 10 - 3 0
2 Georgia 7 - 2 10 - 3 2 LSU 6 - 2 10 - 2 1.5
3 LSU 7 - 1 9 - 3 3 Auburn 7 - 1 9 - 3 -3.5
4 Tennessee 6 - 2 10 - 2 4 Alabama 6 - 2 10 - 2 4.5
5 Florida 5 - 3 7 - 5 5 South Carolina 5 - 3 7 - 5 2.5
6 Arkansas 5 - 3 8 - 4 6 Florida 5 - 3 9 - 3 2
7 Mississippi 3 - 5 4 - 7 7 Vanderbilt 3 - 5 5 - 6 1
8 South Carolina 2 - 6 4 - 7 8 Tennessee 3 - 5 5 - 6 -4.5
9 Alabama 2 - 6 5 - 6 9 Arkansas 2 - 6 4 - 7 -3.5
10 Vanderbilt 2 - 6 4 - 7 10 Kentucky 2 - 6 3 - 8 2
11 Mississippi State 1 - 7 2 - 9 11 Mississippi State 1 - 7 3 - 8 1
12 Kentucky 0 - 8 1 - 10 12 Mississippi 1 - 7 3 - 8 -1
Standard Error: 2.77
Atlantic Coast Conference
2005 Preseason Predictions 2005 Actual Outcomes Error
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 Virginia Tech 9 - 0 12 - 1 1 Virginia Tech 5 - 4 11 - 2 -1
2 Miami-Florida 7 - 1 10 - 2 2 Miami-Florida 6 - 2 9 - 3 -1
3 Florida State 6 - 3 10 - 3 3 Florida State 6 - 3 8 - 5 -2
4 Virginia 6 - 2 10 - 2 4 Boston College 5 - 3 9 - 3 2
5 Georgia Tech 5 - 3 7 - 5 5 Georgia Tech 5 - 3 7 - 5 0
6 North Carolina 4 - 4 5 - 6 6 North Carolina 4 - 4 5 - 6 0
7 Boston College 4 - 4 7 - 5 7 Clemson 4 - 4 8 - 4 2.5
8 N. C. State 3 - 5 7 - 5 8 Wake Forest 3 - 5 4 - 7 -1
9 Clemson 3 - 5 5 - 6 9 N. C. State 3 - 5 7 - 5 0
10 Wake Forest 2 - 6 5 - 6 10 Maryland 3 - 5 5 - 6 4
11 Duke 0 - 8 2 - 9 11 Virginia 3 - 5 7 - 5 -3
12 Maryland 0 - 8 1 - 10 12 Duke 0 - 8 1 - 10 -1
Standard Error: 1.98
Big East Conference
2005 Preseason Predictions 2005 Actual Outcomes Error
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 Louisville 7 - 0 12 - 0 1 West Virginia 7 - 0 11 - 1 2
2 West Virginia 6 - 1 9 - 3 2 Louisville 5 - 2 6 - 6 -3
3 Pittsburgh 5 - 2 7 - 5 3 South Florida 4 - 3 6 - 6 3.5
4 Connecticut 4 - 3 7 - 5 4 Rutgers 4 - 3 7 - 5 3.5
5 Syracuse 3 - 4 4 - 7 5 Pittsburgh 4 - 3 5 - 6 -1.5
6 Cincinnati 2 - 5 4 - 7 6 Cincinnati 2 - 5 4 - 7 0
7 Rutgers 1 - 6 3 - 8 7 Connecticut 2 - 5 5 - 6 -1.5
8 South Florida 0 - 7 2 - 9 8 Syracuse 0 - 7 1 - 10 -3
Standard Error: 2.70
Big Ten+1 Conference
2005 Preseason Predictions 2005 Actual Outcomes Error
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 Purdue 8 - 0 11 - 1 1 Penn State 7 - 1 11 - 1 6.5
2 Iowa 7 - 1 10 - 2 2 Ohio State 7 - 1 10 - 2 2
3 Michigan 7 - 1 10 - 2 3 Michigan 5 - 3 7 - 5 -3
4 Ohio State 6 - 2 8 - 4 4 Northwestern 5 - 3 7 - 5 2.5
5 Wisconsin 5 - 3 8 - 5 5 Iowa 5 - 3 7 - 5 -3
6 Minnesota 3 - 5 5 - 6 6 Wisconsin 5 - 3 10 - 3 2
7 Northwestern 3 - 5 4 - 7 7 Minnesota 4 - 4 7 - 5 1.5
8 Michigan State 3 - 5 4 - 7 8 Purdue 3 - 5 5 - 6 -5.5
9 Penn State 1 - 7 4 - 7 9 Michigan State 2 - 6 5 - 6 1
10 Indiana 1 - 7 4 - 7 10 Indiana 1 - 7 4 - 7 0
11 Illinois 0 - 8 1 - 10 11 Illinois 0 - 8 2 - 9 1
Standard Error: 3.30
Mid-American Conference
2005 Preseason Predictions 2005 Actual Outcomes Error
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 Bowling Green 9 - 0 11 - 2 1 Akron 6 - 3 7 - 6 -1
2 Toledo 7 - 2 10 - 3 2 Northern Illinois 6 - 3 7 - 5 -2
3 Northern Illinois 7 - 1 9 - 3 3 Toledo 6 - 2 9 - 3 -0.5
4 Miami-Ohio 6 - 2 8 - 4 4 Western Michigan 5 - 3 7 - 4 7
5 Akron 5 - 3 7 - 4 5 Central Michigan 5 - 3 6 - 5 4
6 Kent State 4 - 4 5 - 6 6 Bowling Green 5 - 3 6 - 5 -4
7 Ohio 3 - 5 3 - 8 7 Miami-Ohio 5 - 3 7 - 4 -0.5
8 Ball State 3 - 5 3 - 8 8 Ball State 4 - 4 4 - 7 1
9 Central Michigan 2 - 6 2 - 9 9 Ohio 3 - 5 4 - 7 1
10 Eastern Michigan 2 - 6 2 - 9 10 Eastern Michigan 3 - 5 4 - 7 2
11 Buffalo 1 - 7 1 - 10 11 Buffalo 1 - 7 1 - 10 0
12 Western Michigan 0 - 8 0 - 11 12 Kent State 0 - 8 9 - 3 -4
Standard Error: 3.14
Pacific Ten Conference
2005 Preseason Predictions 2005 Actual Outcomes Error
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 Southern Cal 8 - 0 13 - 0 1 Southern Cal 8 - 0 12 - 1 -1
2 California 7 - 1 11 - 1 2 Oregon 7 - 1 10 - 2 5.5
3 Arizona State 7 - 1 10 - 2 3 UCLA 6 - 2 10 - 2 3
4 Oregon State 6 - 2 8 - 4 4 California 4 - 4 8 - 4 -3
5 UCLA 4 - 4 7 - 5 5 Stanford 4 - 4 5 - 6 -0.5
6 Stanford 3 - 5 6 - 6 6 Arizona State 4 - 4 7 - 5 -3
7 Oregon 3 - 5 4 - 7 7 Oregon State 3 - 5 5 - 6 -2.5
8 Washington State 1 - 7 4 - 7 8 Arizona 2 - 6 3 - 8 1
9 Arizona 1 - 7 2 - 9 9 Washington State 1 - 7 4 - 7 0
10 Washington 0 - 8 1 - 10 10 Washington 1 - 7 2 - 9 1
Standard Error: 2.72
Big Twelve Conference
2005 Preseason Predictions 2005 Actual Outcomes Error
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 Oklahoma 9 - 0 12 - 1 1 Texas 9 - 0 13 - 0 1.5
2 Texas 7 - 1 11 - 1 2 Texas Tech 6 - 2 9 - 3 -1
3 Texas Tech 6 - 2 10 - 2 3 Oklahoma 6 - 2 8 - 4 -3.5
4 Colorado 5 - 4 8 - 5 4 Colorado 5 - 4 7 - 6 -1
5 Texas A&M 5 - 3 9 - 3 5 Nebraska 4 - 4 8 - 4 4.5
6 Oklahoma State 4 - 4 8 - 4 6 Missouri 4 - 4 7 - 5 3.5
7 Kansas 4 - 4 7 - 5 7 Iowa State 4 - 4 7 - 5 1.5
8 Kansas State 3 - 5 7 - 5 8 Kansas 3 - 5 7 - 5 0
9 Iowa State 3 - 5 5 - 6 9 Texas A&M 3 - 5 5 - 6 -3.5
10 Nebraska 2 - 6 3 - 8 10 Kansas State 2 - 6 5 - 6 -1.5
11 Missouri 1 - 7 3 - 8 11 Baylor 2 - 6 5 - 6 4
12 Baylor 0 - 8 1 - 10 12 Oklahoma State 1 - 7 4 - 7 -3.5
Standard Error: 2.92
Mountain West Conference
2005 Preseason Predictions 2005 Actual Outcomes Error
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 Utah 8 - 0 12 - 0 1 Texas Christian 8 - 0 11 - 1 7.5
2 Brigham Young 7 - 1 11 - 1 2 Brigham Young 5 - 3 6 - 6 -5
3 New Mexico 6 - 2 8 - 4 3 Colorado State 5 - 3 6 - 6 0
4 Wyoming 5 - 3 7 - 5 4 New Mexico 4 - 4 6 - 5 -1.5
5 Colorado State 4 - 4 6 - 6 5 San Diego State 4 - 4 5 - 7 2
6 Air Force 3 - 5 5 - 6 6 Utah 4 - 4 7 - 5 -5
7 San Diego State 2 - 6 3 - 9 7 Air Force 3 - 5 4 - 7 -1
8 Texas Christian 1 - 7 3 - 8 8 Wyoming 2 - 6 4 - 7 -2.5
9 UNLV 0 - 8 3 - 8 9 UNLV 1 - 7 2 - 9 -1
Standard Error: 3.89
Western Athletic Conference
2005 Preseason Predictions 2005 Actual Outcomes Error
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 Boise State 8 - 0 13 - 0 1 Boise State 7 - 1 9 - 4 -4
2 Fresno State 7 - 1 10 - 3 2 Nevada 7 - 1 9 - 3 5.5
3 Louisiana Tech 6 - 2 7 - 5 3 Louisiana Tech 6 - 2 7 - 4 0.5
4 Hawai'i 5 - 3 7 - 6 4 Fresno State 6 - 2 8 - 5 -2
5 New Mexico State 4 - 4 4 - 8 5 Hawai'i 4 - 4 5 - 7 -1.5
6 Nevada 3 - 5 3 - 8 6 Idaho 2 - 6 2 - 9 2
7 Utah State 2 - 6 3 - 9 7 Utah State 2 - 6 3 - 8 0.5
8 San Jose State 1 - 7 1 - 10 8 San Jose State 2 - 6 3 - 8 2
9 Idaho 0 - 8 0 - 11 9 New Mexico State 0 - 8 0 - 12 -4
Standard Error: 3.10
Sun Belt Conference
2005 Preseason Predictions 2005 Actual Outcomes Error
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 Troy 7 - 0 9 - 3 5 Troy 3 - 4 4 - 7 -4.5
2 North Texas 6 - 1 7 - 4 8 North Texas 2 - 5 2 - 9 -5
3 Middle Tennessee 5 - 2 5 - 6 4 Middle Tennessee 3 - 4 4 - 7 -1
4 Florida Atlantic 4 - 3 4 - 7 7 Florida Atlantic 2 - 5 2 - 9 -2
5 UL-Lafayette 2 - 5 4 - 7 2 UL-Lafayette 5 - 2 6 - 5 2
6 Arkansas State 2 - 5 3 - 8 1 Arkansas State 5 - 2 6 - 6 2.5
7 UL-Monroe 2 - 5 2 - 9 3 UL-Monroe 5 - 2 5 - 6 3
8 Florida Int'l 0 - 7 0 - 11 6 Florida Int'l 3 - 4 5 - 6 5
Standard Error: 3.67
IA Independents
2005 Preseason Predictions 2005 Actual Outcomes Error
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 Navy 2 - 1 9 - 3 1 Notre Dame 1 - 0 6 - 6 3.5
2 Notre Dame 1 - 0 5 - 6 2 Navy 2 - 1 8 - 4 -1
3 Army 0 - 1 3 - 8 3 Army 0 - 1 6 - 6 1
4 Temple 0 - 1 1 - 10 4 Temple 0 - 1 6 - 6 -1
Standard Error: 2.25
Overall Standard Error: 2.94
(74.4% Accuracy)
Predictions for the 2006 season will be posted sometime early in July.
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Continue scrolling down for 2005 I-AA predictions vs 2005 outcomes
Atlantic Twelven Conference
2005 Preseason Predictions 2005 Actual Outcomes Difference
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 New Hampshire 10 - 0 13 - 1 1 New Hampshire 7 - 1 11 - 2 -1.5
2 James Madison 8 - 1 12 - 1 2 Richmond 7 - 1 9 - 4 6
3 Delaware 6 - 3 9 - 3 3 Massachusetts 6 - 2 7 - 4 1
4 Northeastern 5 - 3 6 - 5 4 James Madison 5 - 3 7 - 4 -4
5 William & Mary 5 - 3 8 - 3 5 Hofstra 5 - 3 7 - 4 0
6 Hofstra 4 - 4 7 - 4 6 Maine 3 - 5 5 - 6 0
7 Villanova 4 - 4 7 - 4 7 Delaware 3 - 5 6 - 5 -2.5
8 Maine 3 - 5 5 - 6 8 Towson 3 - 5 6 - 5 3
9 Massachusetts 3 - 5 6 - 5 9 William & Mary 3 - 5 5 - 6 -3
10 Richmond 1 - 7 2 - 9 10 Villanova 2 - 6 4 - 7 -3
11 Rhode Island 1 - 7 3 - 8 11 Northeastern 2 - 6 2 - 9 -4
12 Towson 0 - 8 3 - 8 12 Rhode Island 2 - 6 4 - 7 1
Standard Error: 3.10
Southern Conference
2005 Preseason Predictions 2005 Actual Outcomes Difference
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 Georgia Southern 8 - 0 14 - 1 1 Appalachian State 7 - 1 12 - 3 3
2 Furman 6 - 2 11 - 2 2 Georgia Southern 5 - 2 8 - 4 -4.5
3 Appalachian State 5 - 2 7 - 4 3 Furman 5 - 3 11 - 3 -0.5
4 Wofford 4 - 3 7 - 4 4 Western Carolina 4 - 3 5 - 4 1.5
5 Western Carolina 3 - 4 4 - 6 5 Chattanooga 3 - 4 6 - 5 6
6 The Citadel 2 - 5 4 - 7 6 Wofford 3 - 4 6 - 5 -1
7 Elon 1 - 6 5 - 6 7 The Citadel 2 - 5 4 - 7 0
8 Chattanooga 0 - 7 0 - 11 8 Elon 0 - 7 3 - 8 -2
Standard Error: 3.22
Ohio Valley Conference
2005 Preseason Predictions 2005 Actual Outcomes Difference
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 Jacksonville State 8 - 0 9 - 3 1 Eastern Illinois 8 - 0 9 - 3 1.5
2 Eastern Kentucky 7 - 1 7 - 4 2 Eastern Kentucky 7 - 1 7 - 4 0
3 Murray State 5 - 2 8 - 3 3 Jacksonville State 6 - 2 6 - 5 -2.5
4 Eastern Illinois 5 - 3 7 - 4 4 Samford 4 - 4 5 - 6 2
5 Tennessee Tech 4 - 4 6 - 5 5 UT-Martin 4 - 4 6 - 5 5
6 Samford 3 - 5 3 - 8 6 Tennessee Tech 3 - 5 4 - 7 -2
7 SE Missouri State 2 - 6 2 - 9 7 SE Missouri State 2 - 6 2 - 9 0
8 Tennessee State 1 - 6 2 - 9 8 Tennessee State 1 - 6 2 - 9 0
9 UT-Martin 0 - 8 1 - 10 9 Murray State 0 - 7 2 - 9 -6
Standard Error: 3.11
Gateway Conference
2005 Preseason Predictions 2005 Actual Outcomes Difference
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 Southern Illinois 7 - 0 15 - 0 1 Northern Iowa 5 - 2 11 - 4 1.5
2 Western Kentucky 6 - 1 9 - 3 2 Southern Illinois 5 - 2 9 - 4 -5
3 Northern Iowa 5 - 2 8 - 4 3 Youngstown State 5 - 2 8 - 3 2
4 Youngstown State 4 - 3 6 - 5 4 Western Kentucky 4 - 3 6 - 5 -2.5
5 Missouri State 3 - 4 5 - 6 5 Illinois State 4 - 3 7 - 4 4
6 Illinois State 2 - 5 3 - 8 6 Western Illinois 3 - 4 5 - 6 4
7 Indiana State 1 - 6 2 - 9 7 Missouri State 2 - 5 4 - 6 -0.5
8 Western Illinois 0 - 7 1 - 10 8 Indiana State 0 - 7 0 - 11 -2
Standard Error: 3.25
Southland Football League
2005 Preseason Predictions 2005 Actual Outcomes Difference
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 Sam Houston St. 6 - 0 11 - 2 1 Nicholls State 5 - 1 6 - 4 2.5
2 Northwestern State 5 - 1 10 - 2 2 Texas State 5 - 1 11 - 3 2.5
3 S. F. Austin 4 - 2 8 - 3 3 McNeese State 3 - 3 5 - 4 2
4 Texas State 3 - 3 7 - 4 4 Northwestern State 3 - 3 5 - 5 -4
5 Nicholls State 2 - 4 4 - 7 5 Sam Houston St. 2 - 4 2 - 8 -7.5
6 McNeese State 1 - 5 4 - 7 6 SE Louisiana 2 - 4 4 - 6 1.5
7 SE Louisiana 0 - 6 3 - 8 7 S. F. Austin 1 - 5 6 - 5 -2
Standard Error: 3.98
Big Sky Conference
2005 Preseason Predictions 2005 Actual Outcomes Difference
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 Montana 8 - 0 13 - 1 3 Montana 5 - 2 8 - 4 -4
2 E. Washington 6 - 2 11 - 2 1 E. Washington 5 - 2 7 - 5 -3.5
3 Portland State 5 - 2 7 - 4 4 Portland State 4 - 3 6 - 5 -1
4 Montana State 4 - 3 5 - 6 2 Montana State 5 - 2 7 - 4 2
5 Sacramento State 2 - 5 4 - 7 7 Sacramento State 1 - 6 2 - 9 -2
6 Northern Arizona 2 - 5 4 - 7 8 Northern Arizona 1 - 6 3 - 8 -1
7 Idaho State 1 - 6 3 - 8 6 Idaho State 3 - 4 5 - 6 2
8 Weber State 1 - 6 2 - 9 5 Weber State 4 - 3 6 - 5 4
Standard Error: 2.88
Great Western Football Conference
2005 Preseason Predictions 2005 Actual Outcomes Difference
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 Cal Poly 5 - 0 8 - 3 2 Cal Poly 4 - 1 9 - 4 0
2 N. Dakota St. 4 - 1 8 - 3 3 N. Dakota St. 3 - 2 7 - 4 -1
3 UC-Davis 3 - 2 3 - 8 1 UC-Davis 4 - 1 6 - 5 3
4 Southern Utah 2 - 3 3 - 8 5 Southern Utah 1 - 4 1 - 9 -1.5
5 S. Dakota St. 1 - 4 4 - 7 4 S. Dakota St. 3 - 2 6 - 5 2
6 No. Colorado 0 - 5 4 - 7 6 No. Colorado 0 - 5 3 - 8 -1
Standard Error: 1.86
Ivy League
2005 Preseason Predictions 2005 Actual Outcomes Difference
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 Harvard 7 - 0 10 - 0 1 Brown 6 - 1 9 - 1 1
2 Pennsylvania 6 - 1 8 - 2 2 Princeton 5 - 2 7 - 3 2
3 Brown 5 - 2 8 - 2 3 Harvard 5 - 2 7 - 3 -3
4 Princeton 4 - 3 5 - 5 4 Yale 4 - 3 4 - 6 -1
5 Yale 3 - 4 5 - 5 5 Cornell 4 - 3 6 - 4 3
6 Cornell 2 - 5 3 - 7 6 Pennsylvania 3 - 4 5 - 5 -3
7 Dartmouth 1 - 6 2 - 8 7 Dartmouth 1 - 6 2 - 8 0
8 Columbia 0 - 7 1 - 9 8 Columbia 0 - 7 2 - 8 1
Standard Error: 2.20
Patriot League
2005 Preseason Predictions 2005 Actual Outcomes Difference
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 Lehigh 6 - 0 9 - 3 1 Colgate 5 - 1 8 - 4 -0.5
2 Lafayette 5 - 1 9 - 3 2 Lafayette 5 - 1 8 - 4 -1
3 Colgate 4 - 2 8 - 3 3 Lehigh 4 - 2 8 - 3 -0.5
4 Bucknell 3 - 3 6 - 5 4 Holy Cross 3 - 3 6 - 5 4
5 Fordham 2 - 4 5 - 6 5 Georgetown 2 - 4 4 - 7 2
6 Holy Cross 1 - 5 2 - 9 6 Fordham 2 - 4 2 - 9 -3
7 Georgetown 0 - 6 2 - 9 7 Bucknell 0 - 6 1 - 10 -5
Standard Error: 3.04
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
2005 Preseason Predictions 2005 Actual Outcomes Difference
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 Duquesne 4 - 0 7 - 4 1 Duquesne 4 - 0 7 - 3 0.5
2 Marist 3 - 1 3 - 8 2 Marist 3 - 1 7 - 4 4
3 St. Peter's 2 - 2 3 - 7 3 La Salle 2 - 2 4 - 7 -2
4 La Salle 1 - 3 6 - 5 4 Iona 1 - 3 3 - 7 0
5 Iona 0 - 4 3 - 7 5 St. Peter's 0 - 4 1 - 9 -2
Standard Error: 2.46
Northeast Conference
2005 Preseason Predictions 2005 Actual Outcomes Difference
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 C. Connecticut St. 7 - 0 10 - 2 1 Stony Brook 5 - 2 6 - 5 2
2 Monmouth-NJ 6 - 1 8 - 2 2 C. Connecticut St. 5 - 2 7 - 4 -2.5
3 Albany-NY 5 - 2 5 - 6 3 Monmouth-NJ 4 - 3 6 - 4 -2
4 Robert Morris 4 - 3 6 - 4 4 Albany-NY 4 - 3 5 - 6 0
5 Stony Brook 3 - 4 4 - 7 5 Wagner 3 - 4 6 - 5 0
6 Wagner 2 - 5 6 - 5 6 Sacred Heart 3 - 4 4 - 6 1
7 Sacred Heart 1 - 6 3 - 7 7 St. Francis - PA 3 - 4 3 - 8 1
8 St. Francis - PA 0 - 7 2 - 9 8 Robert Morris 1 - 6 2 - 8 -4
Standard Error: 2.15
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
2005 Preseason Predictions 2005 Actual Outcomes Difference
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 Hampton 8 - 0 11 - 1 1 Hampton 8 - 0 11 - 1 0
2 S. Carolina St. 7 - 1 9 - 2 2 S. Carolina St. 7 - 1 9 - 2 0
3 Bethune-Cookman 6 - 2 9 - 2 3 Delaware State 6 - 2 7 - 4 2
4 Florida A&M 4 - 4 5 - 6 4 Florida A&M 5 - 3 6 - 5 1
5 Delaware State 4 - 4 5 - 6 5 Bethune-Cookman 4 - 4 7 - 4 -2
6 Howard 3 - 5 6 - 5 6 N. C. A&T 2 - 6 3 - 8 1
7 Morgan State 3 - 5 5 - 6 7 Norfolk State 2 - 6 4 - 7 2
8 N. C. A&T 1 - 7 2 - 9 8 Morgan State 1 - 7 2 - 9 -3
9 Norfolk State 0 - 8 2 - 9 9 Howard 1 - 7 4 - 7 -2
Standard Error: 1.84
Southwestern Athletic Conference
2005 Preseason Predictions 2005 Actual Outcomes Difference
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 Alabama State 10 - 0 12 - 0 1 Grambling 10 - 0 11 - 1 6.5
2 Southern 7 - 3 8 - 4 2 Alabama A&M 7 - 3 9 - 3 -0.5
3 Alabama A&M 7 - 2 9 - 2 3 Alabama State 6 - 3 6 - 5 -5.5
4 Jackson State 6 - 3 7 - 4 4 Alcorn State 5 - 4 6 - 5 0
5 Alcorn State 5 - 3 6 - 5 5 Mississippi Valley 5 - 4 6 - 5 3
6 Ark - Pine Bluff 4 - 5 5 - 6 6 Southern 4 - 5 4 - 5 -2.5
7 Grambling 3 - 6 4 - 7 7 Prairie View 3 - 6 5 - 6 2.5
8 Mississippi Valley 2 - 7 3 - 8 8 Ark - Pine Bluff 3 - 6 3 - 8 -2
9 Prairie View 1 - 8 2 - 8 9 Jackson State 2 - 7 2 - 9 -5
10 Texas Southern 0 - 9 0 - 11 10 Texas Southern 1 - 8 1 - 10 1
Standard Error: 3.72
Pioneer Football League
2005 Preseason Predictions 2005 Actual Outcomes Difference
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 San Diego 5 - 0 10 - 2 1 San Diego 5 - 0 11 - 1 1
2 Dayton 7 - 1 9 - 1 2 Dayton 7 - 1 9 - 1 0
3 Morehead State 5 - 2 9 - 3 3 Morehead State 5 - 2 8 - 3 -0.5
4 Drake 4 - 2 6 - 4 4 Drake 4 - 2 6 - 4 0
5 Jacksonville 3 - 2 6 - 4 5 Jacksonville 3 - 2 4 - 4 -1
6 Valparaiso 3 - 4 6 - 5 6 Davidson 2 - 4 4 - 6 1
7 Davidson 1 - 5 3 - 7 7 Austin Peay 1 - 5 3 - 8 0
8 Butler 0 - 6 4 - 7 8 Valparaiso 1 - 6 3 - 8 -3
9 Austin Peay 0 - 6 3 - 8 9 Butler 0 - 6 0 - 11 -4
Standard Error: 1.88
Big South Conference
2005 Preseason Predictions 2005 Actual Outcomes Difference
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
1 Gardner-Webb 4 - 0 8 - 3 1 Cha'ston Southern 3 - 1 7 - 4 2
2 Liberty 3 - 1 6 - 5 2 Coastal Carolina 3 - 1 9 - 2 4
3 Coastal Carolina 2 - 2 5 - 6 3 Gardner-Webb 2 - 2 5 - 6 -3
4 Virginia Military 1 - 3 2 - 9 4 Virginia Military 2 - 2 3 - 8 1
5 Cha'ston Southern 0 - 4 5 - 6 5 Liberty 0 - 4 1 - 10 -5
Standard Error: 3.71
IAA Independents
2005 Preseason Predictions 2005 Actual Outcomes Difference
Conference Overall Conference Overall (W - L)/2
Savannah State - 2 - 9 Savannah State - 0 - 11 -2
Standard Error: 2.00
Overall Standard Error: 2.73
(75.2% Accuracy)